Because I have a greater interest in politics than most, I have been asked more than once, who I think will win the White House.
Three weeks is a long time in politics but, if I were a betting man, my money at this stage would be on a Trump White House.
Why you ask? Firstly, Kamala’s popularity seems to have plateaued short of what she needs and doesn’t have enough support from black males.
Secondly, the polls have underestimated Trump’s votes in the past two elections so even though it’s neck and neck, voter turnout for Trump will probably be greater than the polls are saying.
Next, the gerrymandering of Republican states and their wilful acts to disenfranchise democrat voters.
Finally, the electoral college system which currently favours the Republican Party.
Considering all of the above and if the polls are to be believed, history shows that the Democrats need to be 3+% ahead of the Republicans.
Currently the polls are 51/49 either way.
Non-compulsory voting means that voter turnout will be critical and Trump supporters show up.
For those of you that are anxious about a Trump win, it gets worse.
The power of the office of the President is often overstated. Apart from some foreign policy areas, The President is either supported or thwarted by the congress (House of Representatives and the Senate).
Currently, the Republicans have a majority in the House and the VP (Kamala Harris) has the casting vote in the Senate. It’s likely that the Republicans will control both houses after the election.
That means that a Kamala White House will struggle to get any meaningful legislation passed.
On the other hand, a Trump White House will be unfettered and even encouraged by the extremes on the right in the congress. That’s the scary part.
99% of me is hoping and wishing for a Kamala White House even if that means policy stagnation for four years. It’s better than the alternative.
1% of me (the evil part) wants to be able to say…”well, you voted for him, you got him.”
Unfortunately the office of POTUS can influence all of us.
One response to “The US Election, Three Weeks Out”
It will be interesting to see how globally destabilising a second term with trump will be.
Will this mean a greater offensive push from Putin?
Will this encourage China to finally push the hegemony of the US and divide the world in two fronts of war by attempting to annex Taiwan?
Will Israel continue warmongering aggressively in the Middle East with the support of America?
Ultimately Australia’s position in the world matter little in any of these scenarios, we will have to sit and wait while the big boys make their moves, content that we don’t establish ourselves more on the world stage.